Award for prescience

In an article at this site, Henry Louis Gates Jr. made the following comment:

The award for prescience, however, goes to Jacob K. Javits, the liberal Republican senator from New York who, incredibly, just a year after the integration of Central High School in Little Rock, predicted that the first black president would be elected in the year 2000. In an essay titled "Integration from the Top Down" printed in Esquire magazine in 1958, he wrote:

"What manner of man will this be, this possible Negro Presidential candidate of 2000? Undoubtedly, he will be well-educated. He will be well-traveled and have a keen grasp of his country's role in the world and its relationships. He will be a dedicated internationalist with working comprehension of the intricacies of foreign aid, technical assistance and reciprocal trade. … Assuredly, though, despite his other characteristics, he will have developed the fortitude to withstand the vicious smear attacks that came his way as he fought to the top in government and politics … those in the vanguard may expect to be the targets for scurrilous attacks, as the hate mongers, in the last ditch efforts, spew their verbal and written poison."

Sounds amazingly like Obama.

Rocky Horror Show

My first experience with Rocky Horror was with the film version, Rocky Horror Picture Show, back in the 1970s. I went to Coburg drive-in to a double feature. I can't remember the first film, but was blown away by the second - Rocky Horror Picture Show. It is an amazing thing to see a show like that with no expectations or prior knowledge of its themes and contents. A few years later I went with friends to one of the late night cult showings of the film.

Margaret has been wanting to go to the show for many years, so when it came to Melbourne this year we booked tickets. We actually attended the show for nothing, as Margaret booked it through our credit card loyalty scheme. The package included dinner before the show, which was very pleasant.

We went to the show four days after seeing Wicked. In many ways Rocky Horror and Wicked are diametrically opposite shows. I really enjoyed the plot of Wicked but found the songs uninspiring. Rocky Horror, of cause, has a silly plot, involving themes of Science Fiction, Sexual Deviance and Frankenstein's Monster, but has 18 fantastic and memorable rock and roll songs. Who could forget: Time Warp, Sweet Transvestite, Toucha-Toucha-Touch Me, Wild and Untamed Thing and Don't Dream It, Be It .

We really enjoyed the show. As the Age reported:

Rock and raunch from a dream cast
A vivid, energetic and great looking production
A high-octane, sexually charged show with excellent choreography and some fabulously raunchy costumes
Rock star IOTA puts in a magnetic showing…his is a sweet transvestite with plenty of juice in the tank.
Paul Capsis makes a suitably unearthly Riff Raff and finds a good partner in Tamsin Carroll’s demented Magenta
Sharon Millerchip’s Columbia is a wonderful piece of comic acting with some well-aimed high kicks thrown in.”

All delightfully decadent, so the venue, the Comedy Theatre, was very appropriate.

Publicity Poster featuring iOTA as Frank 'n Furter

One unusual thing occurred during the show. It seemed that someone in the front row got under the skin of the lead actor, iOTA. At one stage he swore at his tormentor and during the curtain calls he looked unhappily at the front row and then walked off to the surprise of the other cast members who were still taking their bows.

Margaret's only disappointment was that Darryn Hinch was not the narrator. I was disappointed for her, but not for me!

It was a great night out.

Polls and Predictions

At the time of writing it appears that Obama has 364 Electoral College Votes (EVs)and McCain 173. One EV in Nebraska is still in doubt. Nebraska and Maine distribute their EVs according to the popular vote in each of their Congressional Districts (CDs). Nebraska's CD 2 is still undecided though it is likely to go to Obama.

There was an immense amount of polling during the election. There are 8 National Polling Companies, many of whom published national polls on a daily basis. Some of them published more that one poll result per day as voluntary voting means that pollsters not only have to determine their respondent's choice but also their likelihood of voting. All pollsters have different methods of dealing with these uncertainties, and some publish multiple poll results using different assumptions. Most of the national polls are tracking polls, producing an average of the last few days, usually three days.

The election is actually a series of 50 simultaneous elections, one for each state. Consequently there were polls for all of the US states. For most of the states the result was a foregone conclusion. The major interest was in the Battleground States that could go either way. All of these were states that were won by Bush in 2004. There were many polls taken in these Battleground States where the election was won and lost.


Given these complexities analysis of the polls was necessary, and many Internet sites were dedicated to this analysis. These included, FiveThirtyEight , Pollster , Princeton Election Consortium , and Electoral Vote.
All of the official predictions for the sites slightly understated Obama's EV result - Pollster, Princeton and Electoral vote with an Obama Ev of 352 and FiveThirtyEight with Obama at 348.6 . The problem state for the predictions was Indiana which has not yet been declared but where Obama is in front and probably will win. The polls had McCain just in front in that state. Incidentally, Sam from the Princeton site gave his own prediction which was virtually on the button - 364 Evs for Obama.

I made a modest prediction in this post on 23rd October, that Obama would have a win "possibly by a huge margin". I suggested that it could be as high as 375 EVs, ie 105 Evs more that required. In fact, my "prediction" was 10 Evs too high.


The map below shows the final result, from FiveThrityEight.com. Note that blue is for Obama and red is for McCain. (The Americans seem to have these colors the opposite way around to the rest of the world). A cursory glance at the map gives the impression that the result was close, as there is a lot of red on the map. Many of the red states, though, have a small population and large area.


An alternative method of displaying the result is shown below - from the Princeton site. The shape and size of each state is distorted to reflect its number of EVs. This makes the size of Obama's win much more clear.

Yes They Could

The historic front pages of the Washington Post and New York Times this morning.





This might become another of those Where were you? questions - "Where were you when you heard that Obama had been elected US President?"

Below is video of his victory speech. I first wrote of Obama's oratorical skills back in early February with this post. Last night, naturally, he didn't disappoint.



The full text of the speech over the fold.

If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.

It's the answer told by lines that stretched around schools and churches in numbers this nation has never seen; by people who waited three hours and four hours, many for the very first time in their lives, because they believed that this time must be different; that their voice could be that difference.

It's the answer spoken by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat and Republican, black, white, Latino, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, disabled and not disabled - Americans who sent a message to the world that we have never been a collection of Red States and Blue States: we are, and always will be, the United States of America.

It's the answer that led those who have been told for so long by so many to be cynical, and fearful, and doubtful of what we can achieve to put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day.

It's been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining moment, change has come to America.

I just received a very gracious call from Senator McCain. He fought long and hard in this campaign, and he's fought even longer and harder for the country he loves. He has endured sacrifices for America that most of us cannot begin to imagine, and we are better off for the service rendered by this brave and selfless leader. I congratulate him and Governor Palin for all they have achieved, and I look forward to working with them to renew this nation's promise in the months ahead.

I want to thank my partner in this journey, a man who campaigned from his heart and spoke for the men and women he grew up with on the streets of Scranton and rode with on that train home to Delaware, the Vice President-elect of the United States, Joe Biden.

I would not be standing here tonight without the unyielding support of my best friend for the last sixteen years, the rock of our family and the love of my life, our nation's next First Lady, Michelle Obama. Sasha and Malia, I love you both so much, and you have earned the new puppy that's coming with us to the White House. And while she's no longer with us, I know my grandmother is watching, along with the family that made me who I am. I miss them tonight, and know that my debt to them is beyond measure.

To my campaign manager David Plouffe, my chief strategist David Axelrod, and the best campaign team ever assembled in the history of politics - you made this happen, and I am forever grateful for what you've sacrificed to get it done.

But above all, I will never forget who this victory truly belongs to - it belongs to you.

I was never the likeliest candidate for this office. We didn't start with much money or many endorsements. Our campaign was not hatched in the halls of Washington - it began in the backyards of Des Moines and the living rooms of Concord and the front porches of Charleston.

It was built by working men and women who dug into what little savings they had to give five dollars and ten dollars and twenty dollars to this cause. It grew strength from the young people who rejected the myth of their generation's apathy; who left their homes and their families for jobs that offered little pay and less sleep; from the not-so-young people who braved the bitter cold and scorching heat to knock on the doors of perfect strangers; from the millions of Americans who volunteered, and organized, and proved that more than two centuries later, a government of the people, by the people and for the people has not perished from this Earth. This is your victory.

I know you didn't do this just to win an election and I know you didn't do it for me. You did it because you understand the enormity of the task that lies ahead. For even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime - two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century. Even as we stand here tonight, we know there are brave Americans waking up in the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan to risk their lives for us. There are mothers and fathers who will lie awake after their children fall asleep and wonder how they'll make the mortgage, or pay their doctor's bills, or save enough for college. There is new energy to harness and new jobs to be created; new schools to build and threats to meet and alliances to repair.

The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America - I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you - we as a people will get there.

There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who won't agree with every decision or policy I make as President, and we know that government can't solve every problem. But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you, especially when we disagree. And above all, I will ask you join in the work of remaking this nation the only way it's been done in America for two-hundred and twenty-one years - block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand.

What began twenty-one months ago in the depths of winter must not end on this autumn night. This victory alone is not the change we seek - it is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were. It cannot happen without you.

So let us summon a new spirit of patriotism; of service and responsibility where each of us resolves to pitch in and work harder and look after not only ourselves, but each other. Let us remember that if this financial crisis taught us anything, it's that we cannot have a thriving Wall Street while Main Street suffers - in this country, we rise or fall as one nation; as one people.

Let us resist the temptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettiness and immaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long. Let us remember that it was a man from this state who first carried the banner of the Republican Party to the White House - a party founded on the values of self-reliance, individual liberty, and national unity. Those are values we all share, and while the Democratic Party has won a great victory tonight, we do so with a measure of humility and determination to heal the divides that have held back our progress. As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, "We are not enemies, but friends...though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection." And to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn - I may not have won your vote, but I hear your voices, I need your help, and I will be your President too.

And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of our world - our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared, and a new dawn of American leadership is at hand. To those who would tear this world down - we will defeat you. To those who seek peace and security - we support you. And to all those who have wondered if America's beacon still burns as bright - tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from our the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope.

For that is the true genius of America - that America can change. Our union can be perfected. And what we have already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.

This election had many firsts and many stories that will be told for generations. But one that's on my mind tonight is about a woman who cast her ballot in Atlanta. She's a lot like the millions of others who stood in line to make their voice heard in this election except for one thing - Ann Nixon Cooper is 106 years old.

She was born just a generation past slavery; a time when there were no cars on the road or planes in the sky; when someone like her couldn't vote for two reasons - because she was a woman and because of the color of her skin.

And tonight, I think about all that she's seen throughout her century in America - the heartache and the hope; the struggle and the progress; the times we were told that we can't, and the people who pressed on with that American creed: Yes we can.

At a time when women's voices were silenced and their hopes dismissed, she lived to see them stand up and speak out and reach for the ballot. Yes we can.

When there was despair in the dust bowl and depression across the land, she saw a nation conquer fear itself with a New Deal, new jobs and a new sense of common purpose. Yes we can.

When the bombs fell on our harbor and tyranny threatened the world, she was there to witness a generation rise to greatness and a democracy was saved. Yes we can.

She was there for the buses in Montgomery, the hoses in Birmingham, a bridge in Selma, and a preacher from Atlanta who told a people that "We Shall Overcome." Yes we can.

A man touched down on the moon, a wall came down in Berlin, a world was connected by our own science and imagination. And this year, in this election, she touched her finger to a screen, and cast her vote, because after 106 years in America, through the best of times and the darkest of hours, she knows how America can change. Yes we can.

America, we have come so far. We have seen so much. But there is so much more to do. So tonight, let us ask ourselves - if our children should live to see the next century; if my daughters should be so lucky to live as long as Ann Nixon Cooper, what change will they see? What progress will we have made?

This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment. This is our time - to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American Dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth - that out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope, and where we are met with cynicism, and doubt, and those who tell us that we can't, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people:

Yes We Can. Thank you, God bless you, and may God Bless the United States of America.

Wicked

We went to see Wicked at the Regent theatre, on 2nd November. The date was the result of a stuff up. We had been told about the show by Catherine, and had decided to go to it with her and Christopher. Catherine and I booked it together, but it was only when we got home that we realised that we had booked for the one Sunday that Cath and Chris could not attend, as they would be in Perth.

In the end, Margaret and I took Spencer, Michelle and a friend, Maggie, who we go to the local Jazz Club with.

We were a little concerned with Spencer's reaction to the show - would it be overwhelming for him? At first that seemed a likely possibility as he was scared of the dragon that adorned the ceiling near the stage. Happily he enjoyed and watched most of the show.

Wicked, subtitled, The Untold Story of the Witches of Oz, is based on the book of the same name by Gregory Maguire, though it departs significantly from the book. It is the backstory to the Wonderful Wizard of Oz from which the famous film was developed.


The publicity synopsis sets the scene:

Long before that girl from Kansas arrives in Munchkinland, two girls meet in the Land of Oz. One - born with emerald green skin - is smart, fiery and misunderstood. The other is beautiful, ambitious and very popular. How these two grow to become the Wicked Witch of the West and Glinda the Good Witch makes for the most spellbinding new musical in years.

Many mysteries from the original are explained including:
* the origins of the cowardly lion, tinman and scarecrow
* the nature of the "Wicked Witch of the East" who was crushed by Dorothy's house
* where Dorothy's red shoes came from
* the origin of the whinged monkeys
* why the "Wicked Witch of the West" was "melted" by water thrown by Dorothy (answer she wasn't)
and many more.

The video below is the trailer for the US tour, and includes comments from the song writer Stephen Schwartz, the American director and stars of the broadway show.


It was a very interesting plot, well acted with great costumes and staging. My main reservation is with the songs. None of them seemed particularly interesting during the show, they seemed fairly regulation songs from a musical, with little to "grab you by the throat".

For instance, watch Defying Gravity below ...

Wicked-Defying Gravity
by DickGreenleaf

... wonderfully theatrical, but really not much of a song.

Or try Popular ...



... more musical, and an interesting song in the show but still it is never going to be a song we will remember years from now.

It was still a great show and we all enjoyed the experience.


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Profound

Photo below is of Amanda Jones a resident of Texas.



Something profound might be about to happen on Tuesday.

Amanda's Story explains ...

Amanda Jones, 109, the daughter of a man born into slavery, has lived a life long enough to touch three centuries. And after voting consistently as a Democrat for 70 years, she has voted early for the country's first black presidential nominee.

. . .

Amanda Jones says she cast her first presidential vote for Franklin Roosevelt, but she doesn't recall which of his four terms that was. When she did vote, she paid a poll tax, her daughters said. That she is able, for the first time, to vote for a black presidential nominee for free fills her with joy, Jones said.